华北饥荒,1876-79

English 繁體

1876至1879年间，中国皇朝漫长的饥荒灾难史上最致命的干旱饥荒袭击了山东，直隶，山西，河南，陕西这五个北部省份。黄河流域盆地的干旱从1876年开始，在1877年时，因为全面性的缺雨而急遽恶化。 直到1879年，状况开始稳定，受影响地区的总人口为1.08亿人, 据估计其中的950万-1300万人死于饥饿以及与饥荒相关的疾病。[1]

因果关系

在1870年代末期，重创华北地区的严重旱灾是催化剂，而不是造成大饥荒的根本原因。像清朝这种广大且高度商业化的经济体，区域性的严重匮乏不一定会造成重大的饥荒。十八世纪期间，清朝政府存放和分配粮食的能力与投入达到巅峰，曾多次有效地预防严重干旱所导致的大规模饥饿。[2] 相比之下，十九世纪中叶的叛乱、财政危机、缺乏强大的领导能力和外国帝国主义的压力下，使得十九世纪末期的清朝政府势力已大幅削弱。因此，清朝再也无法动用必要的介入来预防干旱造成的饥荒。十九世纪中期的叛乱从1850年代开始，使国家资源和各省资源的耗费达到危险的程度，因此国家无法准备就绪处理严重的干旱。太平之乱（1851-1864），捻乱（1853-1868）和穆斯林革命（1855-1873）对财政影响巨大。据统计，军费占政府总支出的近四分之三。太平战争摧毁了一些中国最富有的长江流域的省分，来自十三个省份的土地税和盐巴垄断的收益所产生的国家资金因此中断。同时，捻乱的叛乱者中断了政府在北部四省的行政管理，而穆斯林革命使西南和西北地区人口减少. [3] 为了压制这些十九世纪中叶的叛乱，清朝耗费了相当大的努力，造成了粮仓管理系统的大浩劫。尤其是在干旱多发的北方省份，清朝官员依靠国家和社区粮仓来维持较低的粮食价格，并在生计危机期间提供紧急救援。粮仓系统的衰落始于1790年代，并在十九世纪中叶的叛乱之后达到危机。这样的衰颓意味着，在1870年代华北地区干旱蔓延时，清朝政府对抗严重粮食危机的第一道防线，大多被地方精英所执行的临时系统所取代，这些人缺乏维持大型粮仓和执行重要的区域间谷物转移的国家能力。[4]

财政问题也是造成清末国家无力及时解除干旱的原因。十八世纪，由于国家财政充裕，中央政府官员能够维持有效的粮仓制度，粮食通常维持在二千万吨或以上。直至1870年代，旱灾袭击华北，清朝的国库遭受重大的情势逆转。十八世纪末期，财政储备开始衰退，当时国家必须花费十万两白银，来压制1796-1804年的白莲花叛乱。十九世纪初期，征税变得更加困难，皇朝官员自清初的2000名成员增加到30,000名，一年要花费几百万两白银的俸禄。[5] 随着世纪交替，生态破坏造成的水灾日益严重，维护黄河堤坝的成本大幅增加。[6] 军事对立后赔偿获胜的西方强国，以及资助海岸防御工程以改善能力驱逐海上侵略者，都带来更多的财政压力。西方以及日本的帝国主义者带来的威胁，也迫使清朝统治者及高层官员针对如何妥善利用减少的资源，做出困难的抉择。 1856-60年的鸦片战争，清朝战败英国和法国的耻辱，加深西方对于中国的威胁。而1874年，日本在台湾的「惩罚性考察」，则显示出日本有意挑战清朝政府在东亚的优势。大清帝国的西北边境也遭受攻击，当时富裕的伊利谷，也就是现代的新疆，在十八世纪中叶时清朝皇帝一直积极努力征服，在1871年被俄罗斯入侵和占领。为了收复今日的新疆，政府采取昂贵的军事行动，与饥荒最严重的年头正好吻合，使得国家对于华北灾民的救灾工作更为艰辛。[7] 缺乏强有力的领导，是阻碍清末政府能快速并有效应对干旱的另一个因素。在1876-1879年大旱灾时期，皇室特别积弱不振，因为1895年，干旱的前一年，发生了光绪皇帝继承王位的合法问题。 1870年代后期，失去强势的皇室领导的清朝政府，比过去更难以实施大规模支出的饥荒政策。[8] 总而言之，内乱，外侵，财政问题，粮食系统的瓦解，以及权力高层的薄弱与分化，使得清朝政府无法处理旱灾规模等同于1876年至1879年袭击华北的大旱灾。[9]

对策

中国对1876 – 1979年华北饥荒的对策，反映出中国千年以来对于饥荒成因的传统思维，而且在国共时代，这些新议题预料将会变得越来越重要。如同康雍干盛世的祖先，1870年代的清朝统治者和官员呈现出仁慈的人民父母的模样，将饥饿的人视为需要国家帮助的受苦孩童。他们进行一系列仪式，藉由展现诚意以及对人民的痛苦的深切关怀，祈求感动上苍，使天下雨。[10] 国家还依靠历史悠久的策略，例如，在灾区，以低于市场的价格出售国家粮食，以稳定粮食价格，减少或者取消课税，调查受影响地区，根据房屋的受灾程度做分类，并与当地精英合作，开设厨房与收容所。[11] 身为中国海关官员和历史学家的HB莫尔斯计算出1876年至1878年间，清朝政府给予受旱灾的山西，河南，陕西，直隶地区1800多万两的减免税，超过「国库一年总收入的五分之一。」中央政府还拨款500多万两，直接援助救荒，并命令饥荒地区以外的省份让干旱省份借贷额外的救济金。[12] 然而，与康雍干盛世不同的是，1870年代的政府不再有资源和意愿，将大量粮食运送给受灾群众。例如，在饥荒最为严重的山西，政府救灾办事处共发放一千零七十万两的救灾金，但救灾粮食只有一百万石。[13]

灾难的严重性和范围不仅激起清朝朝廷以及负责纾困北方省份的官员采取行动，西方传教士以及生活在富裕江南地区（扬子江南部）的中国慈善家也跟着行动。上海出版的中英文报纸大幅报导这个灾难。在1877年春天，上海大型外国社会团体的重要成员回应传教士的援助呼吁，游说外国人捐助救济金。[14] 1878年1月，中國飢荒救濟基金委員會在上海成立，擴大在海外的籌款活動，並監督三十名負責將委員會募到的現金發放給山西，山東，直隸的飢荒災民的外國救災分配員（主要是英美新教傳教士）。委員會共收到並分發204,560兩的救濟金。至少有四十名與上海委員會沒有官方關係的天主教徒，也參與救濟。[15] 晚清时期，清朝无力为北方干旱省份提供充足的救济; 加上中国新起的西式报纸对饥荒的批判报导，最关键的是上海的《申报》，也刺激江南地区的中国学者，商人和官员，组成广大的饥荒救灾网络。到了1878年的夏天，筹画救灾的仕绅与商人在上海，杭州，苏州和扬州，设立特别救济办事处（协赈公所）。在接下来的三年，这些网络共同合作，募得一百多万两的救灾费用。他们与天津的官方救灾办事处合作，但保持独立分开。[16]

结果

对一个已经陷入内部动乱，外来侵略和财政困境的帝国而言，华北的饥荒显得是个严重危机。虽然清朝统治者与官员未放弃「国家有养育人民的责任」的言论，但实际上，在1870年代后期，官员们对于如何将匮乏的资源分配给饥荒救济和军费支出有很大的歧见。一群强势官员和满族王子，想将中国有限的资源用于自强项目，尤其是海防。另一群有影响力的官员们认为，西北的边防，特别是收复新疆的运动，比海上防卫更为紧迫。最后，一群被称为清流（Pure Stream）的低阶官员们认为，解除饥荒应该是政府的首要任务。清廷官员间的意见分歧，阻碍政府快速有效地应对饥荒的能力。一个坚强并且自信的皇帝，当时或许可能阻止内哄。不幸的是，在1870年代后期，没有任何一个人或团体有权力和信心去制定明确的政策。相反地​​，衰弱的清廷不断在不同的想法中摇摆，例如是要跟随清流的观念:「养育人民应该是仁慈之国的首要任务」，或是跟随自强派的想法，认为保卫领土抵挡外国的入侵更加迫切。自强派与清流支持者之间的辩论，意味着两方对于重大灾难的诠释无法达成共识。到了1870年代，了解饥荒意义以及饥荒所需的何种对策，如此的整体背景慢慢地从统治者的主要议题为避免失去天命，转变为强调保卫国家抵挡贪婪强取且日益强大的外国势力。[17]

正如玛丽兰金、朱胡、安德烈·扬库克，以及凯瑟琳·埃德顿塔普利合着的作品所显示，饥荒对于在富裕的江南地区具有影响力的精英，也产生重大的影响。在那里，这场灾难使得中国慈善家们越过他们的地域，专注于遥远的华北地区挨饿的陌生人，而不是在自己土生土长所在的穷人。他们与外国人主办的救济活动进行竞争，在国家无法养育人民时担负起政府官员的职责。[18] 中国政府救灾工作的延迟和贫乏让江南精英们强烈失望，也引起对清朝官僚政府的批评和巨大的改革呼声。面对外国对清政府救灾工作不断的炮火攻击，以及因为外国传教士赶到北方省份发放救援物资而造成的质疑，江南商界和文学界精英们开始认为这次饥荒是国家耻辱。尤其是在上海，这个饥荒是19世纪主要的危机之一，迫使通商港的精英活跃分子，开始约瑟夫·列文森所谓的从「文化主义」转向「民族主义」的过程。现代的民族主义在1860年代开始进入中国，不同于早期的中国身份形态，现代的民族主义既强调国家之间的竞争，而且拒绝以往构成中国身份的方式。 」[19] 国外的批评、海外救援工作的新资讯，以及传教士在中国的救济活动，迫使上海受过教育的中国人不安地思索，中国可能不是「全天下」，而只是「众多国家之一」，因此中国的饥荒救灾方式，并不是「救灾方法」，而只是处理灾难的众多方式之一。 [20]

史地概观

仅管在1870年代，饥荒受到国内和国际的广泛关注，但是二十世纪绝大部分，华北饥荒被中外学者所遗忘。一直到1958 – 62年毛泽东时代的大跃进饥荒，造成大约三千万人死亡，人民的记忆才被刻意拉回到1870年代末期的恐惧，借此淡化中华人民共和国在养育人民方面全然的失败。 1960年代初期出版了有关「清末饥荒」的讨论，直接了当地将华北饥荒归咎于贪婪的官员，并认为只有在自相残杀的旧「封建社会」中，贪腐的领导人，强取豪夺的地方精英，以及有缺陷的社会制度，使得天灾导致大规模的饥饿，甚至是家庭内的同类互食。[21]

1980年代，进行国家级研究的中国史学家们对于1876 – 1979年的饥荒产生兴趣，以它身为为害清末中国的重大天灾之一来做研究。华北饥荒原本被视为是体现「旧封建社会」的贪腐与无情的实例，但是文化大革命后，有关华北饥荒的学术文献已经转移观点。新的焦点是检验1876 – 1879年的饥荒以及其他的清末灾难是否是中国在十九世纪时落后西方的可能关键，是否是晚清「现代化」的努力成为空谈的原因。例如，历史学家夏明芳主张，1861-1895年的自强运动旨在促进工业化以强化中国，却因为一连串代价昂贵的破坏性旱灾和水灾而严重受阻。根据夏明芳的论点，这些灾难耗尽清朝国库，转移了官员们对现代化建设的注意力，阻碍了原始资本的累积，阻碍了十九世纪末期中国的商品和劳动市场的发展。[22]

有关这场饥荒的影响，社会学家麦克·戴维斯（Mike Davis）已将讨论推向全球性。他认为在十九世纪，和旱灾有关的毁灭性饥荒袭击中国、印度、巴西、非洲南部和埃及，既是征兆也是原因，说明了十八世纪次大陆强国体系的前核心区域转变为以伦敦为中心的世界经济中的饥饿圈。[23]戴维斯指责帝国主义对殖民地和半殖民地实行自由市场经济，造成惊人的饥荒死亡人数。戴维斯认为，就中国的情况而言，国家能力与普及福利急遽衰退，尤其随着清朝政府被英国及其他强国强迫「开放」现代化，饥荒救灾也跟着同步衰退。戴维斯认为，「我们今天所说的『第三世界』是收入和财富不平等的产物，在非欧洲农民最初融入世界经济时，产生十九世纪最后的十五年决定性改变。」[24] 最后，受文化历史的影响，安德烈·扬库克和凯瑟琳·埃德顿塔普利的近期著作，考察中国对1876 – 1979年，华北饥荒的回应与解读。例如，在扬库克的其中一篇文章，他表明，西方传教士与江南慈善家在饥荒期间，进行筹款活动的竞争，是一种「精神层面上的对抗」，与十九世纪末延续至二十世纪初中国的「佛教复兴」相关。 [25] 埃德顿塔普（Edgerton-Tarpley）关于饥荒的专著《铁眼泪》（2008），分析灾难产生的不同文化与政治反应。书中的一个章节研究闹饥荒的山西省村民、负责救济工作的省政府和中央政府官员、 通商港口的慈善家、以及英美传教士与记者等人如何解释饥荒的因果关系，如何定义大规模饥饿下的道德与不道德的反应。最后一章探讨中国观察家挑选重要影像与故事来显示饥荒的可怕。

来源类型

关于1876-79年的华北饥荒，有许多主要的参考资料。有许多容易取得的地方资料，例如地方志或是文史资料的出版品，特别是山西省的相关资料。上海及苏州的中国慈善家所设计的木板印刷插画以及附带的哀悼(详见：参考书目中的《齐豫晋直赈捐赈兴录》)，可以在上海图书馆找到，而上海申报则提供了详细的灾难报导。在纪念饥荒的相关出版品、总理衙门所搜集的法令（详见：《筹办各省荒赈案》，以及《光绪朝东华录》中皆可找到重要的省级官员与中央官员的观点。有用的饥荒英文主要文献包括上海的《北华捷报》、英国国会文件中的一份冗长的报导《天朝》，以及传教士的出版品​​，如《亿万华民》以及李提摩太的《在中国的四十五年》。在二手文献方面，中国出版的饥荒相关研究书籍，包含何汉威的《光绪初年》 (1876-79) 《华北的大旱灾》(1980), 朱浒的《地方性流动及其超越：晚清义赈与近代中国的新陈代谢》 (2006), 以及郝平的《丁戊奇荒：光绪初年山西灾荒与救济研究》(2014)。 而英文版的研究书籍则包括保罗·理查德·玻尔的《中国的饥荒与传教士：救济行政官与国家改革倡导者李提摩太，1876-1884 (1972)》，埃德顿塔普（Edgerton-Tarpley）的《铁眼泪:中国十九世纪饥荒的文化反应》（2008）。 夏明芳，李文海，安德烈·扬库，玛丽·兰金，李莉安·李和迈克·戴维斯都出版了关于这场灾难的重要文章或书籍章节（见参考书目）。

度量

死亡率：难以估计华北饥荒期间的死亡率。 1879年，中国饥荒救难基金委员会提出报告，估计山西死亡人数550万人，直隶250万人，河南省100万人，山东50万人，总计共有950万人因为饥饿以及与饥荒有关的疾病而死亡，如斑疹、伤寒与痢疾。李立莲指出，因为救灾行动确实抵达直隶省受创最严重的南部地区，因此，报告中直隶的死亡人数为250万可能高估了。另一方面，山西的死亡人数可能更高（见下文），报告中并没有估计也受旱灾影响的陕西省的死亡人数。现代历史学家一般估计死亡人数为950-1300万人之间。

在推估饥荒中心的山西省因饥荒而损失的人口时出现极大的差异。外援工作人员估计，山西地区在饥荒前有1500万人，而约有550万人死于饥荒和随之而来的瘟疫。对比之下，山西省省长曾国权在灾情将结束时写道，山西有近一半的人民，在灾难一开始时就死了，而且因为传染病的缘故持续有人死亡。饥荒过后不久，在曾国权的命令下，编纂了《山西省地名词典》并在1892年出版，书中提到，根据人口登记，饥荒期间的死亡人数不下1000万。刘Rentuan近来利用地名录来研究饥荒对于1877年到1953年间的山西人口的影响。他发现山西省饥荒前的人口以及饥荒死亡人数都高于国外的估计值，但是低于曾国权所估计的数字。刘先生指出，1876年至1880年间，山西人口从1720万人下降到960万人，人口减少44.2％。不幸的是，不可能从地名录来确定失踪的数百万人当中有多少是在饥荒时期死亡的，有多少人是迁徙到其他地区。

地理范围：干旱和饥荒影响山东，直隶，山西，河南，陕西等五个北部省份，占地面积约30万平方英里。
受影响人口：闹旱灾的华北五省约1.08亿人口。
时间：三年 – 1876年夏天至1879年夏天。最严重的时期是1877年至1878年。干旱山东，直隶开始，接着蔓延到山西，河南，陕西。

凯瑟琳·埃德顿塔普是圣地亚哥州立大学，晚期帝国与现代中国历史的副教授。
翻译: 邱奕齐

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注释

[1] R.J. Forrest, “China Famine Relief Fund” (Shanghai, 1879), 1, 9; Susan Cotts Watkins and Jane Menken, “Famines in Historical Perspective,” Population and Development Review 11 (1985): 650.

[2] Pierre-Etienne Will, Bureaucracy and Famine in Eighteenth-Century China, trans. Elborg Forster (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1990); Lillian M. Li, Fighting Famine in North China: State, Market, and Environmental Decline, 1690s-1990s (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2007), chapter 8.

[3] Pao Chao Hsieh, The Government of China, 1644-1911, (Baltimore: The Johns Hpkins Press, 1925), 205-206, 214; Philip A. Kuhn, “The Taiping Rebellion,” in The Cambridge History of China, Vol. 10, 264-316.

[4] Pierre-Etienne Will and R. Bin Wong, Nourish the People: The State Civilian Granary System in China, 1650-1850 (Ann Arbor: Center for Chinese Studies, 1991); Mike Davis, Late Victorian Holocausts: El Nino Famines and the Making of the Third World (London: Verso, 2001).

[5] Will, Bureaucracy and Famine, 290-92.

[6] Li, Fighting Famine, chapters 2 and 9; Will, Bureaucracy and Famine, 292-93.

[7] Kathryn Edgerton-Tarpley, Tears from Iron: Cultural Responses to Famine in Nineteenth-Century China (Berkeley: University of California Press, 2008), 28-39, 92-102. The Xinjiang campaign cost 52.3 million taels between 1875 and 1881. Xinjiang became a full-fledged Chinese province only in 1884.

[8] Richard Horowitz, “Central Power and State-Making: The Zongli Yamen and Self-Strengthening in China, 1860-1880,” (Ph.D. diss., Harvard University, 1998), 105-106.

[9] Mike Davis demonstrates convincingly that the cause of the severe droughts that impacted places as diverse as northern China, India, southern Africa, and northeastern Brazil in the late 1870s was a particularly powerful “El Nino event,” or a rapid warming of the eastern tropical Pacific that led to the prolonged and virtually complete failure of the monsoons that normally provide rainfall for the affected areas. The grand “El Nino event” of 1876-1878 disrupted the entire tropical monsoon belt, as well as the East Asian and Arabian Monsoons that provide rainfall for North China and North Africa. (Davis, Late Victorian Holocausts).

[10] Jeffrey Snyder-Reinke, Dry Spells: State Rainmaking and Local Governance in Late Imperial China (Cambridge: Harvard University Asia Center, 2009), chapter 4.

[11] Li, Fighting Famine, chapter 8; Will, chapters 7-8; Will and Wong, chapter 3.

[12] H.M. Morse, The International Relations of the Chinese Empire, vol. 2, (London: Longmans, Green, and Co., 1918), 312; He Hanwei. Guangxu chunian (1876-79) Huabei de da hanzai (The great Huabei region drought disaster of the early Guangxu period) (Hong Kong: Zhongwen daxue chuban she, 1980), ch. 4.

[13] Shanxi tongzhi, j. 82, 18b-19a. The gazetteer states that 3,402,833 people in Shanxi received relief between 1877 and 1879 and that a total of 10,700,315 taels of relief silver and 1,001,657 shi of relief grain were distributed in the province.

[14] Paul Richard Bohr, Famine in China and the Missionary: Timothy Richard as Relief Administrator and Advocate of National Reform, 1876-1884 (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1972), 89-90.

[15] Bohr 1972: 187-189, 113-114.

[16] Mary Rankin, Elite Activism and Political Transformation in China: Zhejiang Province, 1865-1911 (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1986), 142-147.

[17] Kathryn Edgerton-Tarpley,“Tough Choices: Grappling with Famine in Qing China, the British Empire, and Beyond.” Journal of World History Vol. 24, No. 1 (March 2013): 166-169.

[18] Rankin, Elite Activism, chapter 4; Zhu Hu, Difangxing liudong ji qi chaoyue: wan Qing yizhen yu jindai Zhongguo de xinchen daixie (The fluidity and transcendence of localism: Late-Qing charitable relief and the supersession of the old by the new in modern China) (Beijing: Zhongguo renmin daxue chubanshe, 2006); Edgerton-Tarpley, Tears from Iron, chapter 6; Andrea Janku, “The North-China Famine of 1876-1879: Performance and Impact of a Non-Event,” 2001 online publication.

[19] Henrietta Harrison,“Newspapers and Nationalism in Rural China, 1890-1929,” Past and Present 166 (1999): 182.

[20] Edgerton-Tarpley, Tears from Iron, chapter 8.

[21] Edgerton-Tarpley, Tears from Iron, chapter 9.

[22] Xia Mingfang, “Cong Qingmo zaihai qun faqi kan Zhongguo zaoqi xiandaihua de lishi tiaojian: zaihuang yu Yangwu Yundong yanjiu zhi yi,” (Looking at the historical conditions for China’s early modernization from the rise of late-Qing disasters: Part I of research on disasters and the Westernization Movement) Qingshi yanjiu (January 1998): 70. See also Xia Mingfang, “Zhongguo zaoqi gongyehua jieduan yuanshi jilei guocheng de zaihai shi fenxi” (An analysis of the impact of natural disasters on primitive accumulation during the early stages of industrialization in China), Qingshi yanjiu 1 (1999): 62-81.

[243 Davis, Late Victorian Holocausts, 291.

[24] Davis, 9; 15-16; chapter 11.

[25] Andrea Janku, “Sowing Happiness: Spiritual Competition in Famine Relief Activities in Late Nineteenth-Century China.” Minsu Quyi 143 (March 2004): 89-118.

 

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